What U.S. Banks Can Learn from Canada

While America’s bailed-out banks lobby against reform, Canada’s profitable banks are asking for more

By Derek DeCloet, Business Week

On the night hockey superstar Wayne Gretzky lit the cauldron to open the Winter Games, something was conspicuously absent in the host city: winter. With rain and temperatures near 50F, Vancouver was the focus of a weather-obsessed nation.

Right now, Canada’s business community is fretting about a different sort of climate event. The country’s housing market is so hot, and has become so untethered from its foreclosure-ridden U.S. counterpart, that alarms are beginning to sound about a Canadian real estate bubble. In Toronto, the average home in January sold for about $392,000 (U.S.), a 19% jump from a year earlier. In prime areas of Vancouver, you can find Lilliputian one-bedroom condos listed for $575,000 or more. Price increases are forecast for every province.

For a country whose economic fortunes usually move in lockstep with America’s, this is an odd—and disconcerting—phenomenon. The most surprising part is who’s trying to cool off home prices: Canada’s top bankers. They earn huge profits from mortgages. Yet the leaders of the major banks recently urged the government to tighten mortgage rules to chill down the market, even though that would cut into profits in the short term. And the government quickly responded, announcing changes on Feb. 16 that enforce stricter requirements for borrowers, among other (tougher) rules.

This effort may be the surest sign yet of the gulf between the Canadian and American financial systems. More than $1 billion in goods cross the border daily, but when it comes to banking, the two countries are leagues apart, and the credit crisis proved it. Canada did not have to bail out its banks (though Ottawa did adopt measures to lubricate the credit markets). When American and European banks were teetering in 2008, only one of Canada’s six major banks reported a loss. Last year, none did.

The stability hasn’t gone unnoticed. Canada’s bankers have won admiration from President Barack Obama, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, and Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, among others. What explains the success? Krugman points to stricter regulation—certainly a factor but not the whole story. Yes, regulators kept Canadian banks from taking on too much debt, which helped them through the crisis, but there were cultural and business reasons at play, too.

Read more here: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_09/b4168072832439.htm

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Default Expectations on US Alt-A Option ARM Loans Double in Latest Quarter to 25%

www.researchrecap.com

Investors’ default rate forecasts for collateral in nearly all classes and vintages of U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities  have risen dramatically in Standard & Poor’s Fixed Income Risk Management Services’ latest quarterly survey, while predictions for European mortgage default rates have fallen across all classes and vintages with the exception of Spain.

According to Standard & Poor’s,  “Twelve-month default rate expectations on certain U.S. RMBS collateral have doubled since the previous quarterly survey, with U.S. 2007 Alt-A pay option ARM RMBS collateral default rate predictions rising to 25% from 12% polled in Q3.”

For the same vintage, U.S. prime fixed-rate collateral default forecasts rose to 5.75% from 4.00%; U.S. prime adjustable-rate collateral default forecasts moved up to 10.50% from 6.25%; and U.S. subprime collateral default forecasts increased to 34.36% from 23.00%.

By contrast, 12-month forecasts for U.K. nonconforming loan RMBS collateral default rates across an average of vintages fell to 4.61% from 9.00% polled in Q3; for prime U.K. mortgage default rates, the 12-month average forecast for all vintages fell to just 1.09% from 2.00%; forecasts for Italian and Dutch mortgage default rates dropped to 1.21% and 1.32%, respectively, while Spanish mortgage default expectations were stable at 2.80%.

For details, see FIRMS Survey Says Investors Expect European RMBS Mortgage Performance To Improve But U.S. Collateral To Deteriorate

Read more here: http://www.researchrecap.com/index.php/2010/02/17/default-expectations-on-us-alt-a-option-arm-loans-double-in-latest-quarter-to-25/

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The Year in Foreclosures

New York times Editorial

Last week offered some sobering news on the housing market: Even with broad government support for housing, data from the National Association of Realtors showed that the median price of single-family homes continued to decline in 2009. RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties, said foreclosure filings rose by 15 percent in January compared with a year ago.

Foreclosure is generally a long process, with multiple filings as delinquent borrowers fall ever further behind. What is most ominous about the latest RealtyTrac numbers is that nearly 88,000 people had their homes repossessed in January, a 31 percent increase from a year ago. The big jump indicates that many foreclosures that were in process in 2009 are now beginning to move to repossession and, eventually, auction. With more than four million homes in that pipeline, the foreclosure crisis shows no sign of abating.

Worse, as The Times’s Peter Goodman recently reported, the Obama administration’s antiforeclosure plan (which pays cash incentives to mortgage companies that lower monthly payments for troubled borrowers) may be doing more harm than good for some borrowers.

Read more here: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/15/opinion/15mon2.html

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Todd Rundgren Sues WaMu/Chase Claiming Mortgage Fraud

By Curtis Lum
Honolulu Advertiser Staff Writer

A singer who gained popularity in the late 1960s with the song “Hello It’s Me” has filed a lawsuit here against a Washington-based bank, asking a judge to stop the financial institution from foreclosing on his Kaua’i home.

Todd Rundgren filed the complaint Wednesday in state Circuit Court and alleged that representatives from Washington Mutual misled him and his wife, Michele, when the couple refinanced a loan on their property in Kilauea. The lawsuit, filed by attorney Gary Dubin, lists as defendants Washington Mutual Bank and JP Morgan Chase, which acquired WaMu in September 2008.

The Rundgrens are asking for a temporary restraining order to halt foreclosure actions, as well as an undetermined amount in damages and attorneys fees.

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/20090828/NEWS01/908280353/Singer+sues+bank+in+foreclosure

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